Bullish Case: MCD's strategic menu innovations and global brand strength boost confidence, with forward-looking metrics indicating potential upside. Historical returns suggest mean-reverting growth opportunities backed by digital transformation and market expansion initiatives.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty. Economic headwinds, rising labor costs, and geopolitical tensions could strain MCD's growth potential. Ongoing PR challenges and competitive pressure may compromise margin stability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Sales boost from menu innovations and digital integration (55%).

2. Economic challenges hinder growth (30%).

3. Stock stabilizes with minor fluctuations (15%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish short volatility strategy by selling $280 put and buying $275 put with a 3-day expiry. This leverages short-term volatility, achieving 69% profit odds, aligned with positive market conditions and historical edge data. Potential annualized return: 132%.

January 22, 2025