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MCD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MCD’s low-mid range implied volatility, strong brand loyalty, and strategic digital expansion support potential growth. Historical price patterns indicate probable positive returns.

Bearish Case: Operational cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainties pose risks. High short-term option IV suggests potential negative surprises. Mean-reverting price action implies limited upward momentum.

Potential Outcomes: Bullish menu successes (70%), innovation-driven growth (60%), operational setbacks (30%), geopolitical impacts (40%).

May 22, 2025

McDonald's Forecast

MCD McDonald's

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MCD

BABA Alibaba (0.91)

PPL PPL (0.87)

FNF Fidelity National Financial (0.86)

MCHI BTC iShares MSCI China (0.8)

ALL Allstate (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MCD

IRM Iron Mountain (0.01)

ROK Rockwell Automation (0.02)

APPN Appian (-0.05)

EDC Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Sh (0.06)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.06)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MCD

STNG Scorpio Tankers (-0.8)

DOOO BRP (-0.81)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.82)

MUR Murphy Oil (-0.82)

AMCX AMC Networks (-0.83)

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