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Bullish Case: NARI's recent strong institutional support alongside potential FDA approvals could significantly boost investor confidence, supported by rising implied volatility in the options market. Upcoming earnings reports could enhance the bullish sentiment further.

Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility and significant insider selling raise concerns over market confidence for NARI. Potential FDA delays or competitive pressures could drastically affect its market position, leading to further price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1) FDA Approval (30%): Drives confidence;

2) Earnings Surprise (35%): Positively impacts stock;

3) Increased Competition (25%): Decreases market share;

4) Insider Selling (20%): Erodes confidence.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a long volatility debit spread by buying NARI 45C and selling NARI 55C, expiring November 2024. This strategy aligns with high implied volatility, minimizing risk while maximizing upside potential with earnings expectations looming.

September 26, 2024