NDAQ Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: NDAQ's resilience and upcoming IPOs suggest continued tech growth. Volatility decrease indicates market confidence.




Bearish Case: Backwardation in the volatility term structure and high put/call volume ratio signal potential downside risk due to macro uncertainties.




Potential Outcomes: 45% chance of moderate growth, 35% possible decline from economic pressures, 20% unexpected IPO boosts.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying $75 Calls and selling $77.5 Calls expiring June 2025, exploiting low implied volatility in backwardation.



January 14, 2025


Nasdaq Forecast

NDAQ        Nasdaq











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NDAQ



CINF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CINF  Cincinnati Financial (0.97)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.95)


GVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GVA  Granite Construction (0.94)


EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (0.94)


ZION Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZION  Zions Bancorporation N.A (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NDAQ



RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.02)


VNDA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNDA  Vanda Pharmaceuticals (-0.02)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.03)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.03)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NDAQ



EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.88)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.89)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.89)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)









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