Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NJR is potentially positioned for growth due to rising demand for clean energy and its status as a dividend aristocrat. Expected regulatory support for clean energy initiatives can drive share price upward, backed by historically positive performance across longer holding periods.

Bearish Case: The market sentiment around NJR appears pessimistic, fueled by economic uncertainties and evidenced by high implied volatility. Current price action trends suggest the potential for further declines, particularly if earnings reports continue to underperform expectations.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30%: Stabilization in share price due to ongoing dividends.
• 40%: Potential growth from regulatory support in the clean energy sector.
• 30%: Decline in price due to macroeconomic pressures affecting natural gas demand.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread with NJR December 2024 55 call options, taking advantage of favorable implied volatility shifts noted in the surface graph. This strategy aligns with anticipated upward momentum while managing exposure effectively in a potentially volatile market.

November 26, 2024