NMR Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Nomura's strategic investments in digital assets and recent gains indicate potential for positive growth, especially given the favorable holding period returns shown in historical data.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and increased put option volume suggest market skepticism, compounded by negative historical price trends and economic uncertainties.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of digital asset ventures boosting returns.
  • 35% chance regulatory and market challenges stall progress.
  • 25% chance of neutral performance due to volatility and economic factors.



April 17, 2025


Nomura Forecast

NMR        Nomura











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NMR



FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.75)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (0.75)


APG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APG  APi (0.74)


PCOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCOR  Procore (0.73)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NMR



CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.0)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.01)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.01)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.02)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NMR



PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (-0.55)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (-0.56)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.57)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.64)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.66)









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