NMR Forecast


Bullish Case: Nomura's strategic initiatives, including global acquisitions to expand wealth management, increased algorithmic trading in FX markets, and robust domestic stock performance position NMR for growth. Positive AI forecasts and the company's adaptability suggest potential upward momentum.


Bearish Case: Persistent downward momentum indicated over the past decade, recent earnings miss, and potential regulatory issues cast doubt on NMR's immediate growth. Low implied volatility and flat recent price action imply lack of strong near-term catalysts.


Potential Outcomes:

1. (60%) Strategic asset management and FX trading strength drives positive returns.

2. (25%) Regulatory scrutiny and earnings pressure lead to sustained flat or declining prices.

3. (15%) Diversification stabilizes prices despite market challenges.


Trading Oracle: Trade credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) focusing on October 2024 and January 2025 options. Favor slightly bearish to neutral strategies due to stable low volatility, aiming for positions that risk minimal capital with high probability of profit. Monitor regulatory updates closely.


June 30, 2024


Nomura Forecast

NMR      Nomura











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DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NMR



LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (0.03)


GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.07)


INSP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSP  Inspire Medical Systems (-0.08)


ESTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTA  Establishment Labs (0.19)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (-0.2)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NMR



IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.47)


PII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PII  Polaris (-0.51)


EVLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVLV  Evolv (-0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)





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