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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NWSA's strategic positioning and past performance suggest potential recovery as demand for reliable news surges amid rising misinformation. Historical data indicates a strong likelihood of positive returns over long holding periods, particularly beyond 2 years, which aligns with increased user trust and potential legislative support for media companies.

Bearish Case: Ongoing public mistrust due to deepfake proliferation and stiff competition from digital platforms challenges NWSA's credibility and revenue streams. Recent historical returns show considerable downside risks, particularly within shorter holding periods, where value depreciation is observable.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Legislative support for media companies—25%

2. Public demand for trustworthy news—30%

3. Escalation of deepfake incidents undermining trust—60%

4. Continued decline in cable viewership affecting ad revenue—70%

5. Increased market volatility due to geopolitical tensions—50%.

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September 28, 2024