Bullish Case: PRAA could benefit from a stabilization in the debt recovery market, potentially solidified by strategic partnerships and AI integration that enhances operational efficiencies, fostering upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Continued high competition and regulatory scrutiny may restrain PRAA's growth, compounded by low trading volumes and bearish market sentiment indicated by the high put-call volume ratio.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Improvement in debt recovery demand (60%);

2. Regulatory changes negatively impacting operations (40%);

3. Strategic partnerships enhancing growth (30%);

4. Sustained market competition causing price drops (50%).

Trading Oracle: Implement bearish credit spreads targeting strikes around $20.00-$22.50, given the high implied volatility relative to historical norms and the prevailing bearish sentiment. Monitor the performance closely expecting a potential decline in PRAA, with options expiring in December 2024 to align with market dynamics.

November 20, 2024