SO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased call volumes and mean-reverting price trends suggest potential upside, supported by stable implied volatilities.




Bearish Case: Helium's higher implied volatility suggests potential downside risks, while mean reversion indicates minimal immediate gains.




Potential Outcomes: 60% chance SO rises slightly due to stable demand; 25% it stabilizes amid earnings; 15% it drops on geopolitical instability.




Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish short volatility strategy expiring in ~30 days. Sell $85 put, buy 2 $80 puts. High probability of profit (82%), leveraging the mean-reverting trend with a return of 11% (38% annualized).



February 20, 2025


Southern Forecast

SO        Southern











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SO



AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (0.96)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.95)


DTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DTE  DTE Energy (0.95)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (0.94)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SO



FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (0.0)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.01)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (0.01)


WB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WB  Weibo (0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SO



ABCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABCL  AbCellera Biologics (-0.86)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.86)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.87)


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (-0.89)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)









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