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SRRK Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive Phase 3 SMA results could significantly elevate SRRK, with near-term catalysts and high implied volatility suggesting strong price momentum.



Bearish Case: Market uncertainty may lead to price retraction, especially if financing challenges appear and clinical trials show any setbacks, affecting confidence in SRRK's growth prospects.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive Phase 3 results (70% chance) driving price above $35.

2) Financing challenges (90% chance) leading to downside risk near $22.

3) New trial results (50% chance) impacting market sentiment.

4) Continued mean reversion supporting $27.38 floor (60% likelihood).



Trading Oracle: Consider a razor-tight short call spread, selling the SRRK $30 call (delta 0.39) and buying the $35 call (delta 0.18). This has a high probability of profit at 73%, maximizing returns if SRRK stabilizes near current levels or trends down.


November 14, 2024


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SRRK        Scholar Rock

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