SRRK Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Positive Phase 3 SMA results could significantly elevate SRRK, with near-term catalysts and high implied volatility suggesting strong price momentum.




Bearish Case: Market uncertainty may lead to price retraction, especially if financing challenges appear and clinical trials show any setbacks, affecting confidence in SRRK's growth prospects.




Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive Phase 3 results (70% chance) driving price above $35.

2) Financing challenges (90% chance) leading to downside risk near $22.

3) New trial results (50% chance) impacting market sentiment.

4) Continued mean reversion supporting $27.38 floor (60% likelihood).




Trading Oracle: Consider a razor-tight short call spread, selling the SRRK $30 call (delta 0.39) and buying the $35 call (delta 0.18). This has a high probability of profit at 73%, maximizing returns if SRRK stabilizes near current levels or trends down.



November 14, 2024


Scholar Rock Forecast

SRRK        Scholar Rock











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