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SUM Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong post-merger synergies and favorable industry trends support upside. Volatility provides opportunities for long positions.

Bearish Case: Macro risks and potential integration challenges could dampen earnings, leading to downside amid high implied volatility.

Potential Outcomes: 40% synergy success boosts profits, 30% economic downturn affects construction, 20% policy reforms help sector, 10% unforeseen issues arise.

Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads by buying SUM $50 calls and selling $55 calls for May expiration. High implied volatility suggests increased movement. Focus on capturing potential merger synergies with a high reward:risk ratio. Monitor earnings closely.

January 09, 2025

Summit Materials Forecast

SUM Summit Materials

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SUM

CG Carlyle (0.83)

SHAK Shake Shack (0.76)

LYV Live Nation Entertainment (0.73)

MIDU Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares (0.72)

TRV Travelers Companies (0.72)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SUM

TAL TAL Education (0.0)

FANG Diamondback Energy (0.0)

WRAP Wrap (0.01)

ARKG ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.01)

X United States Steel (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SUM

GEL Genesis Energy (-0.55)

CNXC Concentrix (-0.57)

TWO Two Harbors Investment (-0.57)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.58)

BIIB Biogen (-0.6)

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