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TCOM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: With a recovering travel sector, increased AI capabilities, and strong customer engagement, Trip.com (TCOM) shows high potential for growth, positioning it well for further price appreciation.



Bearish Case: Despite bullish indicators, macroeconomic uncertainty in China, combined with historical volatility and competitive pressures, may hinder TCOM's price performance and suppress growth expectations.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of revenue growth from improved travel demand and AI tech.

2. 25% chance of limited recovery due to economic headwinds.

3. 15% chance of dramatic declines from intensified competition or macroeconomic shocks.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish short volatility position by selling $65 puts and buying $60 puts expiring in ~9 days, capitalizing on TCOM's upward trajectory and increased option activity. Anticipate a high probability of profit due to current sentiment and favorable implied volatility metrics.


November 08, 2024


Trip.com Forecast

TCOM        Trip.com

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