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TOST Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Toast's AI-driven restaurant tech accelerates growth, tapping into the $24B SMB sector with rising ARR and a strong market presence.

Bearish Case: High valuation and market saturation risks persist, with options showing greater bearish sentiment and potential regulatory challenges.

Potential Outcomes: 60%: Continued growth via innovation.
25%: Stagnation from competition.
15%: Regulatory and macroeconomic impacts.

June 20, 2025

Toast Forecast

TOST Toast

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TOST

ARKF ARK Fintech Innovation (0.96)

RCL Royal Caribbean (0.95)

AXON Axon Enterprise (0.94)

IGV BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.92)

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TOST

KNX Knight-Swift Transportation (0.02)

AA Alcoa (-0.03)

WMG Warner Music (0.05)

JBLU Jetblue Airways (0.05)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.06)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TOST

CNC Centene (-0.79)

KHC Kraft Heinz (-0.8)

CAG Conagra Brands (-0.81)

BMRN Registered Shares (-0.82)

SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.9)

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