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TSM Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TSM's long-term growth is bolstered by its dominant position in AI and semiconductor markets, strong historical returns, and increasing global demand.

Bearish Case: Potential geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties could disrupt TSM's supply chain, impacting production and profitability, amidst market volatility.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of moderate growth due to AI demand; 30% chance of geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chain; 20% chance of increased volatility causing sell-offs.

Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish call debit spreads (192.5/197.5) expiring in March 2025. Capture upside from expected price increase; historical mean-return likelihood supports this. Favorable flat term structure with low market volatility indicates room for profitable risk management.

February 22, 2025

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TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TSM

VGT Vanguard Information Technology (0.96)

VOO Vanguard S&P 500 (0.96)

SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.95)

GLW Corning (0.94)

ITOT BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TSM

CARS Cars.com (0.0)

UAN CVR Partners (0.01)

VTRS Viatris (-0.01)

OLED Universal Display (-0.01)

XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TSM

GES Guess (-0.89)

LEA Lear (-0.9)

SLDB Solid Biosciences (-0.9)

COTY Coty (-0.91)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)

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