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TSM Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: TSM's technological leadership and expansion plans boost growth prospects, supported by AI demand and strategic US investments, as depicted by historical return likelihoods.



Bearish Case: Geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions remain key threats, compounded by high implied volatility and potential market fluctuations.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of moderate growth driven by technological advancements.
  • 30% risk of supply chain or geopolitical disruptions.
  • 10% chance of increased volatility affecting stock price.


May 04, 2025


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Forecast

TSM        Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TSM


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.96)


SPTM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTM  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market (0.92)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.92)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.92)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TSM


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.0)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (-0.0)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.01)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TSM


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.69)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.69)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.71)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.72)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.79)







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