TSM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TSM's technological leadership and expansion plans boost growth prospects, supported by AI demand and strategic US investments, as depicted by historical return likelihoods.




Bearish Case: Geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions remain key threats, compounded by high implied volatility and potential market fluctuations.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of moderate growth driven by technological advancements.
  • 30% risk of supply chain or geopolitical disruptions.
  • 10% chance of increased volatility affecting stock price.



May 04, 2025


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Forecast

TSM        Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TSM



SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.91)


AIQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AIQ  Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology (0.89)


VTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTI  Vanguard Total Stock Market (0.89)


MRVL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRVL  Marvell Technology (0.85)


AMZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMZN  Amazon.com (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TSM



AMCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMCX  AMC Networks (0.0)


SPWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPWH  Sportsman's Warehouse (-0.0)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (-0.0)


HL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HL  Hecla Mining (-0.01)


POST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POST  Post (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TSM



XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.49)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.52)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (-0.53)


EWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWW  iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.56)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.77)









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