UBER Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Uber's future is buoyed by strategic tech investments and expansion in autonomous driving, alongside positive return likelihoods in the historical return surface.




Bearish Case: High regulatory pressures, competition from Lyft and Waymo, and public sentiment issues pose significant risks as seen in the implied volatility data.




Potential Outcomes: 40% Tech-driven growth boosts revenue. 30% Regulatory hurdles increase costs. 30% Competition erodes market share.




Trading Oracle: With elevated implied volatility slightly higher than market expectations, a Bullish Long Volatility strategy capitalizes on potential upward movements amidst current uncertainty. This strategy leverages favorable convictions on Uber's growth paths.



March 16, 2025










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