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ULTA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Ulta's ongoing strategic initiatives, including partnerships and omnichannel enhancements, could drive growth. The historical mean-reverting behavior supports potential stabilization and recovery.

Bearish Case: Rising competition, tightening consumer belts, and margin pressures pose risks. The backwardated volatility term structure suggests market uncertainty, potentially leading to further declines.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance growth from partnerships and digital efforts.
30% likelihood of economic pressures affecting spending.
20% risk of squeezed margins affecting profits.

March 20, 2025

Ulta Beauty Forecast

ULTA Ulta Beauty

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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SYNA Synaptics (0.6)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ULTA

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YPF YPF (0.0)

COF Capital One Financial (0.01)

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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ULTA

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.58)

FE Firstenergy (-0.6)

HAS Hasbro (-0.6)

SO Southern (-0.65)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.72)

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