ULTA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Ulta's strategic partnerships and strong customer loyalty underpin its growth, shown by 46% higher bullish risk. Resilience amid competition and market expansion initiatives highlight potential upside.




Bearish Case: Increased competition and tightening margins signal caution, with put options trading 41% more volume. Economic headwinds and market saturation pose significant risks to growth outlook.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance strategic initiatives drive growth.

2. 30% risk of margin pressures leading to declines.

3. 30% stabilization due to mixed signals.




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May 20, 2025


Ulta Beauty Forecast

ULTA        Ulta Beauty











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Assets that tend to move strongly with ULTA



APPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPF  Appfolio (0.74)


ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (0.6)


DECK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DECK  Deckers Outdoor (0.57)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (0.56)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (0.55)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ULTA



CRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRH  CRH Plc (0.0)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (-0.0)


GDRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDRX  GoodRx (-0.0)


UVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVV  Universal (0.0)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ULTA



ES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ES  Eversource Energy (-0.45)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.49)


O Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   O  Realty Income (-0.5)


DUK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUK  Duke Energy (-0.52)


ED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ED  Consolidated Edison (-0.57)









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