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ULTA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Ulta's ongoing strategic initiatives, including partnerships and omnichannel enhancements, could drive growth. The historical mean-reverting behavior supports potential stabilization and recovery.



Bearish Case: Rising competition, tightening consumer belts, and margin pressures pose risks. The backwardated volatility term structure suggests market uncertainty, potentially leading to further declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance growth from partnerships and digital efforts.
  • 30% likelihood of economic pressures affecting spending.
  • 20% risk of squeezed margins affecting profits.


March 20, 2025


Ulta Beauty Forecast

ULTA        Ulta Beauty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ULTA


MTN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTN  Vail Resorts (0.67)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.67)


RHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RHI  Robert Half International (0.64)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (0.6)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ULTA


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (0.0)


ON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ON  ON Semiconductor (0.0)


BBAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAR  BBVA Argentina (0.0)


DESP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DESP  Despegar.com (0.0)


COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ULTA


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.58)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (-0.6)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.6)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.65)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.72)







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