USL Forecast


Bullish Case: USL's historical data shows strong long-term upward trends. Bullish sentiment is confirmed by higher implied volatility in calls, indicating potential price appreciation due to increasing demand and geopolitical uncertainties.


Bearish Case: USL's recent flat price action juxtaposed with economic slowdown risks and implied volatility lower at specific strikes suggests possible price drop. Bearish pressures include potential global economic downturn reducing oil demand and pricing.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises due to geopolitical tensions: 20%.

2. Price drops due to economic slowdown: 30%.

3. Minor fluctuations from current levels: 50%. Historical data and current volatility forecasts underpin these probabilities.


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish vertical call spreads targeting 45-50 strikes, expiring in 3-6 months. High implied volatility and skew favor debit spreads. Capitalize on potential price rise from geopolitical tensions and economic growth. High reward-to-risk ratio with limited downside.


July 23, 2024


United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States 12 Month Oil Forecast

USL      United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States 12 Month Oil











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Assets that tend to move strongly with USL



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UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.95)


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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USL



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MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (0.0)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.0)


ELAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELAN  Elanco Animal Health (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USL



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NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (-0.76)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.76)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.85)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.96)


USL News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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