VCR Forecast


Bullish Case: VCR's historical data shows significant returns for holding periods over 1 year, with rising call option volumes signaling investor confidence in the consumer discretionary sector.


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action coupled with high implied volatility suggests potential downside risks, as fund outflows and sector rotation could place downward pressure on VCR.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued Flat Performance: 60%, driven by current stagnation.

2. Breakout Above $319: 25%, driven by positive market shifts in consumer discretionary.

3. Sharp Decline Below $300: 15%, due to macroeconomic headwinds or sector rotation.


Trading Oracle: A short-term credit spread strategy (Helium Short Volatility) with a bullish bias using VCR's current IV premiums could be profitable. Sell the July 320-330 call spread, capitalizing on high call volumes and implied volatility markup. Time outlook: 1-2 months. Positive edge with high probability of profit.


June 28, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Forecast

VCR      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary











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Assets that tend to move strongly with VCR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VCR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.54)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VCR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.54)





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