YPF Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: YPF's recent price surge (up 192.3% YoY) indicates strong momentum. Continued success in Vaca Muerta and potential government support may drive higher demand, making YPF a strategic long-term buy.




Bearish Case: Persistent inflation and legal uncertainties may hamper YPF's margins, increasing market volatility. The high implied volatility could present risks should unforeseen geopolitical events arise.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Improved regulatory environment (60%): Enhances profitability.

2. Escalating inflation (30%): May compress margins.

3. Stronger global oil prices (10%): Drives stock momentum.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying the $28 call and selling the $29 call expiring in 49 days. This setup capitalizes on favorable metrics with a potential return of 296% and strong market support. Focus on capturing upward movements amid likely volatility compression.



November 08, 2024










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Assets that tend to move strongly with YPF



GGAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GGAL  Grupo Financiero Galicia (0.96)


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (0.96)


SMTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMTC  Semtech (0.95)


CPNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPNG  Coupang (0.91)


PWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PWR  Quanta Services (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to YPF



TTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTWO  Take-Two Interactive Software (0.0)


TRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRMD  TORM (0.0)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (-0.01)


LH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LH  Laboratory Corp. Of America (0.01)


MAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAT  Mattel (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against YPF



SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.83)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (-0.84)


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGNY  Progyny (-0.84)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.85)


BA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BA  Boeing (-0.86)









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