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YPF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: YPF's strong growth prospects in Vaca Muerta and positive social sentiment signal upward momentum. Stable implied volatility suggests potential for solid returns as market confidence grows.



Bearish Case: Persistent inflation and legal issues, combined with Argentina's economic instability, could compress margins and hinder YPF's operational capabilities, lowering investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes: Successful economic reforms (55%), inflation pressures margins (40%), legal issues resume (5%). Reforms likely improve revenue; inflation/instability creates downside risks.



Trading Oracle: Enter a bullish short volatility spread: Sell 1 $38 put, buy 7 $28 puts, expiring in ~66 days. High probability of profit (75%) with a 17% potential return. Align with stable volatility outlook.


February 11, 2025











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with YPF


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (0.96)


ARGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARGT  Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (0.96)


GGAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GGAL  Grupo Financiero Galicia (0.96)


BBW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBW  Build A Bear Workshop (0.9)


VIST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIST  Vista Oil & Gas Sab De Cv (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to YPF


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.0)


MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (-0.0)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.01)


KRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRP  Kimbell Royalty Partners (-0.02)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against YPF


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.8)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.81)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.82)


AMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMN  AMN Healthcare Services (-0.84)







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