Bullish Case: ZTO's current oversold status and strong institutional backing, despite a recent mean reversion, suggest potential for upward momentum. Given the modest positive deviation in Helium's IV over the market, there's room for price recovery.


Bearish Case: Persistent declines and significant institutional sell-offs indicate continued bearish sentiment. The flattening of the IV term structure suggests a lack of strong catalysts for recovery, hinting at ongoing weak market confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 60% chance ZTO stabilizes around $21 fueled by gradual institutional buys.

2) 25% chance ZTO slides to $18 on weak earnings.

3) 15% chance breakthrough to $24 on unexpected positive developments.


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April 19, 2024


ZTO Express (Cayman) Forecast

ZTO        ZTO Express (Cayman)
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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