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MCD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MCD's innovative menu items, strategic price deals, and international store expansion drive growth, bolstered by decreasing long-term implied volatility.

Bearish Case: Rising operational costs, macroeconomic pressures, and weak technicals suggest potential downturn. Implied volatility signals market uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Innovative menu success drives sales (60%).

2. Cost pressures dampen growth (30%).

3. Stabilizing global expansion promotes confidence (10%).

July 02, 2025

McDonald's Forecast

MCD McDonald's

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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YUM Yum Brands (0.74)

MCHI BTC iShares MSCI China (0.73)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MCD

IMO Imperial Oil (-0.0)

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (-0.01)

XP XP (0.01)

HBAN Huntington Bancshares (0.02)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MCD

STNG Scorpio Tankers (-0.72)

MUR Murphy Oil (-0.73)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.75)

FDX Fedex (-0.77)

ELF e.l.f. Beauty (-0.79)

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