AVXL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: If ANAVEX®2-73 gets FDA fast-track and successful trial results emerge, share prices may rise significantly. Increased volatility forecasts suggest potential upside.




Bearish Case: Potential failure in Alzheimer's trials or regulatory setbacks may significantly depress AVXL's value, as indicated by elevated implied volatility in out-of-the-money puts.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Successful trial: 30% chance, massive gains.
  2. Trial failure: 50% chance, sharp decline.
  3. Regulatory delays: 20% chance, moderate dip.




Trading Oracle: Adopt Bullish Long Volatility strategy; buy OOTM call options as volatility and trial outcomes present significant upside. Implied volatility patterns suggest strong movement potential.



March 04, 2025


Anavex Life Sciences Forecast

AVXL        Anavex Life Sciences











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AVXL



BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.0)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (0.01)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AVXL



LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.85)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.86)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.86)


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (-0.86)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.87)









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