BHR Forecast


Bullish Case: Despite historical underperformance, BHR's debt refinancing success, rising institutional interest, mean-reversion tendencies, and a low P/B ratio suggest a significant recovery potential in the next few quarters.


Bearish Case: Continuous underperformance, high debt ratios, ongoing management issues, and recent legal conflicts with shareholders point to persistent structural weaknesses that could further depress the stock price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful refinancing and governance changes: 60%.

2. Prolonged sector downturn: 40%.

3. Immediate turnaround driven by low valuation: 30%.

4. Enhanced investor interest after strategic moves: 20%.

5. Extended negative returns due to structural issues: 50%.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a medium-term long volatility strategy using debit spreads (3-6 months). Current high implied volatility suggests opportunities for significant profit if BHR rebounds. Target December 2024 options to maximize gains from potential positive catalysts, balancing risk via controlled spread strategies.


July 23, 2024


Braemar Hotels & Resorts Forecast

BHR      Braemar Hotels & Resorts











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BHR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.17)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BHR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.17)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.31)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BHR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.17)





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