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CBRL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The flat term structure suggests increasing volatility, and high call volume points to bullish sentiment. Mean-reversion patterns support potential upside as customer engagement and strategic investments could spark recovery.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent price declines indicate market skepticism. The gap between Helium and market volatility suggests uncertainty about CBRL's financial stability amid economic headwinds and potential dividend cuts.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings exceed expectations (30%), uplifting stock.

2. Dividend cut (60%) pressures stock.

3. Sentiment-driven short-term rally (40%) despite market volatility.

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December 28, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBRL

TDOC Teladoc Health (0.92)

CRNC Cerence (0.9)

FRSH Freshworks (0.89)

LAC Lithium Americas (0.88)

WW WW International (0.88)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBRL

NKLA Nikola (-0.01)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (-0.03)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (-0.04)

INTU Intuit (0.04)

ADM Archer Daniels Midland (-0.05)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBRL

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.74)

LICY Li-Cycle Holdings Corp (-0.75)

PSFE Paysafe Limited (-0.78)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.83)

LLY Lilly(Eli) (-0.86)

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