CNQ Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CNQ's diverse asset base and consistent dividend growth position it for stability and potential appreciation despite sector turbulence.




Bearish Case: Heightened implied volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, including potential trade tensions, suggest caution as risks of correction persist.




Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of stable growth with strong fundamentals, 25% risk of price stagnation, 15% chance of downturn due to geopolitical tensions.




Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish credit put spread targeting 30-60 days; sell $30 puts to capitalize on mean-reversion. Short volatility trend shows high stability, offering a 75% profit probability in current market conditions.



February 14, 2025


Canadian Natural Resources Forecast

CNQ        Canadian Natural Resources











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CNQ



DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.87)


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (0.85)


TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (0.84)


MAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAN  ManpowerGroup (0.83)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CNQ



ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.0)


WRAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRAP  Wrap (0.01)


ATI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATI  Allegheny (-0.01)


THS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   THS  Treehouse Foods (0.02)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CNQ



PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.79)


SAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAP  Sap SE (-0.8)


VRSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSK  Verisk Analytics (-0.8)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (-0.81)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.81)









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