EDF Forecast


Bullish Case: Emerging markets showing signs of recovery could reinvigorate EDF's price, especially with its high dividend yield of 12.88%, attracting more income-focused investors.


Bearish Case: Ongoing instability in emerging markets and potential further dividend cuts could trigger renewed selling pressure, leading to significant price declines in EDF.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 70% chance of stable or slightly rising prices if emerging markets stabilize.

2. 60% chance of flat price action driven by dividend appeal.

3. 50% chance of losses due to global economic pressures.


Trading Oracle: Consider a strategic bearish play with Helium credit spreads, expecting EDF's price to remain flat. Sell $5.10 Calls and buy $5.50 Calls, targeting a 1-month holding period and aiming for an 85% probability of profit.


July 24, 2024


Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Forecast

EDF      Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EDF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.64)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EDF



AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.64)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EDF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.64)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)





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