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FRI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FRI shows potential for modest growth due to historical short-term returns and stabilizing implied volatility. The implied volatility surface indicates reduced uncertainty over time, suggesting confidence in upward trends.



Bearish Case: Elevated long-term implied volatility and recent flat price action suggest potential downside risks. Concerns about economic volatility and interest rate impacts on REITs could pressure FRI downward.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of moderate increase (0-3%) with sector stabilization.
  • 30% probability of stagnation from recent flat trends.
  • 35% risk of decline (2-5%) due to macroeconomic challenges.


July 01, 2025


First Trust S&P REIT Index Forecast

FRI        First Trust S&P REIT Index

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FRI


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.97)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.93)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.84)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (0.77)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FRI


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (-0.0)


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (-0.0)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (0.01)


DUK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUK  Duke Energy (0.01)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FRI


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.42)


GFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GFI  Gold Fields (-0.43)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (-0.47)


OKTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OKTA  Okta (-0.64)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.65)







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