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FRI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: FRI shows potential for growth with positive historical returns over short periods. Stabilizing interest rates might boost the REIT sector, indicating moderate price appreciation.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strike prices signals market caution. Continued remote work trends and economic uncertainty could negatively impact FRI with possible price declines.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of 0-3% increase due to stabilization.
30% likelihood of stagnation from flat price action.
35% chance of 2-5% decline amid high volatility.

March 18, 2025

First Trust S&P REIT Index Forecast

FRI First Trust S&P REIT Index

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FRI

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.99)

HIG Hartford Financial Services (0.93)

PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics (0.91)

RY Royal Bank Of Canada (0.9)

XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FRI

OPCH Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.0)

AAL American Airlines (-0.01)

FMC FMC (-0.01)

KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.01)

SAN Banco Santander (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FRI

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.79)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.8)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.81)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.85)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.87)

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