MNA Forecast


Bullish Case: Expect stabilization in MNA price given the decline in medium to long-term implied volatility. Positive returns possible if mergers succeed in creating synergies.


Bearish Case: The historical returns point to a strong mean reversion tendency centered around negative returns. Persistent high short-term volatility indicates potential downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market decline due to ongoing high volatility (60%).

2. Stabilization as short-term volatility decreases (30%).

3. Sharp upward swing from positive merger news (10%).


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July 18, 2024


IQ Merger Arbitrage Forecast

MNA      IQ Merger Arbitrage











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CMCSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMCSA  Comcast (0.54)


ON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ON  ON Semiconductor (0.53)


CSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSCO  Cisco Systems (0.52)


BMY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMY  Bristol-Myers Squibb (0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MNA



IWN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWN  iShares Russell 2000 Value (-0.0)


HMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMC  Honda Motor (0.0)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.0)


ALC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALC  Alcon (0.0)


HD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HD  Home Depot (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MNA



HEAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEAR  Turtle Beach (-0.42)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.42)


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (-0.42)


LEVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEVI  Levi Strauss (-0.43)


OSCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OSCR  Oscar Health (-0.45)





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