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NLY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: If interest rates decline as projected, NLY could stabilize its dividends and attract more institutional investments, leading to positive price movements. Recent trading patterns show a bullish bias in options activity.



Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility combined with macroeconomic headwinds could pressure NLY's margins, resulting in potential dividend cuts and driving the stock lower. Sustained flat price action raises concerns.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Improved margins from rate cuts (40%);

2. Market confidence boosts from sustained dividends (30%);

3. Dividend cuts due to high borrowing costs (20%);

4. Continued stock stagnation or decline (10%).



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance with a spread strategy. Sell $19.5 puts and buy $18.5 puts expiring in under 14 days. Given the positive odds of 78% for profit, this strategy capitalizes on the stabilizing price and reduced volatility, offering high reward/risk potential.


October 27, 2024











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UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.86)


MTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTH  Meritage Homes (0.84)


CARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CARR  Carrier (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NLY


HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (0.0)


GNTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GNTX  Gentex (0.0)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (0.0)


AAOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAOI  Applied Optoelectronics (-0.0)


KHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KHC  Kraft Heinz (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NLY


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.73)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.73)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.74)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.77)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)


NLY News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.







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