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PPI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: PPI could experience a bullish reversal if inflation stabilizes further and economic fundamentals improve, thus attracting more investment interest.

Bearish Case: Continued economic uncertainties and potential rate hikes may drive further declines in PPI, reflected in high implied volatility for protective puts.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of mean reversion-driven recovery.
45% chance of extended decline due to economic headwinds.
20% chance of stabilization as market uncertainty persists.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit call spread with strikes at $15.00 and $16.00 expiring in 60 days. This leverages potential recovery while managing risk via defined max loss, capitalizing on current implied volatility dynamics.

January 30, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PPI

MT New York Shares (0.83)

WY Weyerhaeuser (0.78)

LAC Lithium Americas (0.77)

DAR Darling Ingredients (0.76)

PATH UiPath (0.74)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PPI

BYRN Byrna (0.0)

LYV Live Nation Entertainment (-0.01)

FREY FREYR Battery (0.01)

ST Sensata (0.02)

VRNS Varonis Systems (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PPI

KO Coca-Cola (-0.54)

ATGE Adtalem Global Education (-0.55)

BLBD Blue Bird (-0.56)

BNED Barnes & Noble Education (-0.57)

GME Gamestop (-0.65)

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