SPD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: High likelihood of 5-10% gains evident in historical return trends. Low long-term implied volatility supports stability and potential upward movement.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility indicates potential for further downward pressure amid recent price declines and market sentiment caution.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of SPD stabilizing or slowly recovering, aligning with historical return trends.
  • 30% chance of decline due to volatility and negative sentiment.
  • 10% chance of significant positive shift from political developments.



April 01, 2025


Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity Forecast

SPD        Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD



SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.98)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.97)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.97)


IVW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.95)


COHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COHR  Coherent (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD



PCAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCAR  Paccar (0.0)


UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (0.01)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (-0.01)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.01)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD



WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.79)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.8)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.8)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.82)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.88)









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