SPD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: High likelihood of 5-10% gains evident in historical return trends. Low long-term implied volatility supports stability and potential upward movement.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility indicates potential for further downward pressure amid recent price declines and market sentiment caution.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of SPD stabilizing or slowly recovering, aligning with historical return trends.
  • 30% chance of decline due to volatility and negative sentiment.
  • 10% chance of significant positive shift from political developments.



April 01, 2025


Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity Forecast

SPD        Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD



SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.94)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.9)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.88)


XLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLG  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 (0.88)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD



DKL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKL  Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (0.0)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.02)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD



XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.59)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.61)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.62)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.67)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.71)









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