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SPD Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Recent high implied volatility at lower strike prices suggests increased market interest, potentially leading to a rally if SPD concludes its political transitions favorably post-elections.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and a low probability of SPD gaining substantial seats in the upcoming election could push prices down if political uncertainty escalates before the vote.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Price rally due to strong election results (35%).
  2. Prices stabilize around $34 (30%).
  3. Price drop triggered by negative market sentiment post-election (25%).
  4. Stagnation due to overall market conditions (10%).



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish strategy using a debit call spread, purchasing $35 calls and selling $36 calls, aiming for December expiry. The high volatility presents an opportunity to profit from potential bullish movements while minimizing risk. Monitor political developments closely.


December 18, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.99)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.98)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.96)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (0.95)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.01)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.02)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (-0.02)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.03)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.86)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.86)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.88)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.99)







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