SPD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With moderate implied volatility and historical trends showing likely positive returns, SPD may see gains supported by stabilized political scenarios.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strikes signals potential downside risk, coupled with skepticism about the fund's strategies during economic uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. SPD surges on stabilized political climate, 40%
  2. SGapos downturn from volatility spikes, 30%
  3. Stagnates around current price due to mixed sentiments, 30%



April 29, 2025


Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity Forecast

SPD        Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD



SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.94)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.9)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.88)


XLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLG  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 (0.88)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD



VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)


HPK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HPK  HighPeak Energy (-0.01)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.02)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD



BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.67)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.69)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.71)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.71)


SPDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPDN  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.9)









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