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SPD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent price stability and a historical trend towards positive returns suggest SPD could gain from political developments.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and weak political prospects indicate potential downward pressure on SPD's price.

Potential Outcomes:

1. SPD price rises due to positive political news (40%).

2. Holds around $34.65 as uncertainty persists (30%).

3. Declines due to volatility spikes (30%).

Trading Oracle: Enter a bullish debit call spread by buying SPD $34 call and selling $35 call, targeting a 45-day expiry. This leverages lower mid-term volatility compared to SPY, optimizing for market stabilization. High success potential given SPD's current price behavior and options pricing.

February 19, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD

VOO Vanguard S&P 500 (0.99)

SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.99)

VGT Vanguard Information Technology (0.98)

GLW Corning (0.97)

KKR KKR (0.96)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.0)

CMC Commercial Metals (-0.01)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (-0.01)

ASAN Asana (-0.01)

TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD

LEA Lear (-0.86)

SHLS Shoals (-0.86)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.86)

AMN AMN Healthcare Services (-0.86)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.99)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.