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SPY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Despite recent corrections, long-term historical data shows SPY resilience, with potential gains driven by stabilizing geopolitical tensions and robust corporate earnings.



Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility suggests continued market uncertainty, especially given backwardation, geopolitical tensions, and potential economic disruptions, posing downswing risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable economic recovery and rate stability could push SPY to $550 (40% probability).
  • Geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures lead to volatility, keeping SPY below $500 (30% probability).
  • Steady rate decisions and strong corporate earnings help SPY remain around $525 (30% probability).


April 05, 2025


SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY         SPDR S&P 500

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (1.0)


XLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLG  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 (0.99)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.99)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.98)


VT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.0)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.0)


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (0.01)


NVGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVGS  Navigator (0.01)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.75)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.76)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.77)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.87)







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