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SPY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SPY has robust bullish momentum at 81.8% return over five years, stable inflation, and potential Fed rate cuts encouraging growth.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility and flat price action hint at complacency risk. Data discrepancies and geopolitical tensions increase potential for corrections.



Potential Outcomes:
  • SPY uptrend continues with rate cuts: 60% chance.
  • Correction due to persistent inflation: 25% chance.
  • Heightened volatility from geopolitical issues: 15% chance.



Trading Oracle: Deploy bullish debit spreads on SPY, focusing on slightly out-of-the-money calls. Leverage the expected rate cuts and stable volatility. Consider a 2-3 month horizon, with the aim to capitalize on expected gains. Monitor for geopolitical risks, but implied stability supports a positive outlook.


January 22, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.97)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.97)


KNTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNTK  Kinetik (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.0)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.01)


ONTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONTO  Onto Innovation (0.02)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (-0.03)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.88)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.89)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.89)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)







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