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SPY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Stable implied volatility and mean-reverting price action suggest resilience, coupled with high trading volume on call options indicating bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Backwardation and low options trading volume imply market caution, with geopolitical uncertainty weighing on investor sentiment.

Potential Outcomes: Market stabilizes, SPY trades around $580 (50%).
SPY correction to $550 if economic data worsens (30%).
Geopolitical tensions keep SPY below $540 (20%).

May 11, 2025

SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY SPDR S&P 500

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY

IVV BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (1.0)

SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.99)

SPYG SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.98)

IGV BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.97)

VT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.97)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY

OUST Ouster (0.01)

INTU Intuit (0.01)

TAL TAL Education (-0.01)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.02)

EIX Edison International (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY

XP XP (-0.72)

BMRN Registered Shares (-0.73)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.75)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.77)

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