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AI UMAR Forecast


Bullish Case: The bullish case hinges on historical recovery patterns and current market stabilization, suggesting UMAR could outperform with possible price appreciation of over 20% in stable conditions due to positive investor sentiment and market dynamics.



Bearish Case: In contrast, the bearish case stems from looming economic uncertainties, including inflation and potential recession signals that could lead to stagnant or declining returns for UMAR, as seen in the increased likelihood of negative returns over short holding periods.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate Bullish (40%): Improved market sentiment yields modest gains.

2. Neutral (50%): Continual flat performance matching recent trends, with limited volatility.

3. Bearish (10%): Significant economic downturns trigger losses, aligning with historical volatility observed in the return surface.



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October 20, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UMAR


VTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTI  Vanguard Total Stock Market (1.0)


SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (1.0)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (1.0)


VIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIG  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.99)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UMAR


MDLZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MDLZ  Mondelez International (0.0)


VRDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRDN  Viridian Therapeutics (-0.0)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (0.01)


SIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIG  Signet Jewelers (-0.01)


CCOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCOI  Cogent Communications (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UMAR


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.95)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.96)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.96)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.99)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)







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