Bullish Case: A bullish case hinges on improving sentiment around vice sectors, with anticipation of a rebound in demand post-election. High implied volatility suggests potential for significant price movement, targeting price increases above $34 as institutional interest grows.

Bearish Case: The bearish scenario is driven by persistent uncertainty due to political backlash against vice industries, alongside high implied volatility indicating potential for sharp declines. A sentiment shift could see prices dip towards $27 in adverse market conditions.

Potential Outcomes:

• Flat trend continues (30%)
• Gradual recovery as consumer confidence rises (40%)
• Sharp drop if regulatory backlash escalates (30%)

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bearish credit spread by selling $30 puts and buying $28 puts to capitalize on heightened implied volatility while limiting risk. This strategy captures premium from near-term price stagnation, increasing likelihood of profit as market sentiment stabilizes.

December 20, 2024