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VUG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The recent historical performance of VUG shows potential for gains, driven by a bullish outlook in tech, strong AI growth prospects, and a comparative increase in investor sentiment. Moreover, the indicated higher implied volatility suggests a potential upward price movement.



Bearish Case: With current macroeconomic uncertainty, high P/E ratios, and a drop in call volume relative to puts, VUG faces significant headwinds. Overall, the high implied volatility also signals potential risks and a greater likelihood of downward price adjustments under bearish market conditions.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance for VUG to continue its upward trend due to AI growth;

2. 25% chance for VUG to see increased market volatility;

3. 10% probability of VUG remaining flat;

4. 5% chance of a sharp decline driven by adverse economic factors.



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October 20, 2024


Vanguard Growth Forecast

VUG        Vanguard Growth

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VUG


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (1.0)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (1.0)


IVW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (1.0)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.99)


VTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTI  Vanguard Total Stock Market (0.99)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VUG


MRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRK  Merck (0.0)


AFRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFRM  Affirm (0.0)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.0)


RCUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCUS  Arcus Biosciences (0.0)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VUG


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.9)


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (-0.91)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.93)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.94)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.99)







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