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BOE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: BOE's stable dividend yield and historical tendency for mean reversion indicate potential modest gains. Positive market sentiment and strong financial management could drive further upside.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, notably the US-China trade war impacting Boeing, pose serious risks. High SPY implied volatility suggests increased market uncertainty, potentially suppressing BOE's price.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued dividend stability with minor appreciation: 40%.

2) Geopolitical tensions exacerbate, impacting price: 30%.

3) Global economic recovery supports upward trend: 20%.

4) Major downturn impacts adversely: 10%.

April 17, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BOE

SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.8)

SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.79)

GIL Gildan Activewear (0.78)

IVV BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.77)

SATS EchoStar (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BOE

RYAAY Ryanair (-0.01)

CWEN Clearway Energy (-0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

INTC Intel (0.01)

EA Electronic Arts (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BOE

ASH Ashland (-0.46)

VRNT Verint Systems (-0.46)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.47)

CAL Caleres (-0.49)

CRON Cronos (-0.49)

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