CATY Forecast


Bullish Case: CATY's recent mean-reversion indicates potential for upward momentum, especially if institutional holdings stabilize. High call volume and positive implied volatility suggest possible bullish sentiment in the options market, potentially driven by strong fundamentals or upcoming favorable news.


Bearish Case: Increasing implied volatility and lack of institutional support create downside risks for CATY, especially if market uncertainty escalates. The historical price dynamics indicate a high likelihood of extended sideways movement or a bearish reversal if macroeconomic factors negatively impact investor sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of a bullish rally due to recovering institutional interest.

2. 40% chance of sideways movement as market stabilizes.

3. 20% chance of bearish decline spurred by rising uncertainty or disappointing earnings.

4. 10% chance of extreme volatility induced by major news.


Trading Oracle: Implement a debit spread on CATY calls (e.g., $45 and $50 strikes) to capitalize on potential upside, given the elevated implied volatility. This bearish-to-neutral strategy provides protection against downside risk while positioning for gains, targeting a 60-day outlook.


July 25, 2024


Cathay General Bancorp Forecast

CATY      Cathay General Bancorp











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CATY



BOH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOH  Bank of Hawaii (0.88)


KRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRE  SPDR S&P Regional Banking (0.83)


DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPST  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.82)


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (0.8)


AFRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFRM  Affirm (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CATY



SWN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SWN  Southwestern Energy (0.0)


REAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REAL  Therealreal (-0.0)


BSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSY  Bentley Systems (0.0)


MTN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTN  Vail Resorts (-0.0)


TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CATY



POET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POET  POET (-0.63)


STAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STAA  Staar Surgical (-0.63)


FNV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNV  Franco-Nevada (-0.67)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.73)





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