FAIL Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent political and market volatility provide potential upside for tail-risk strategies like FAIL, especially given its current underperformance and potential mean-reversion.


Bearish Case: Extended flat performance and low historical return probability (based on Helium chart) suggest limited upside and potential continued decline in FAIL, especially in low volatility contexts.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Major geopolitical events: 40% chance;

2. Significant market correction: 30% chance;

3. Continued low volatility and stable markets: 30% chance.


Trading Oracle: Enter bullish LONG volatility debit spreads on FAIL. Current low performance history suggests breakout potential amid political and market instability over next 6-9 months. Target ROI: 50%+.


June 28, 2024


Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Global Tail Risk Forecast

FAIL      Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Global Tail Risk











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FAIL



UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.95)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (0.94)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.94)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.92)


LAZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAZR  Luminar (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FAIL



DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (-0.0)


BHP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHP  BHP Group Limited (0.0)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.01)


CAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAG  Conagra Brands (-0.01)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FAIL



MMYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MMYT  MakeMyTrip (-0.95)


MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.95)


VRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRT  Vertiv (-0.95)


VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (-0.95)


WDC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WDC  Western Digital (-0.96)





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