Bullish Case: Renewed investor confidence due to positive regulatory news and breakthrough treatments could drive IBD prices up significantly, as historical returns suggest a likelihood of rebounds within one to two years.

Bearish Case: Persisting operational challenges and regulatory setbacks risk further stagnation, as indicated by recent trends in the return surface where losses predominate for most holding periods.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive regulatory news (30%) could significantly drive prices up.
2. Scientific breakthroughs in treatment (25%) might enhance market sentiment.
3. Continued operational challenges and market skepticism (45%) could suppress price volatility.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread targeting strikes slightly above current price levels to capitalize on potential price recovery over the medium term. The market sentiment favors long volatility strategies, especially given recent breakthroughs. Focus on trades with expirations in 3-6 months to maximize potential gains while managing risk efficiently.

November 28, 2024