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IBD Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Recent advancements in IBD treatments and ESG focus could attract ethical investors, supporting price stability and potential recovery.



Bearish Case: Concerns over liquidity, transparency, and competitive performance against traditional funds could continue suppressing IBD prices.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Technological breakthroughs in IBD treatments improve returns (25%).
  • Market stagnation persists due to regulatory and operational challenges (50%).
  • Increased competition continues to pressure prices (25%).



Trading Oracle: Adopt credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) on IBD given expected stagnation. Focus on strategy with 1-2 month expiration to capitalize on low fluctuations and potential bearish sentiment. Aim for high probability of profit with limited movement expected.


January 08, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IBD


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.71)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.71)


OLPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLPX  Olaplex (0.7)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.65)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IBD


BHF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHF  Brighthouse Financial (0.0)


BMEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMEA  Biomea Fusion (0.01)


ING Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ING  ING Groep (0.01)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.02)


MIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MIR  Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IBD


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.55)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (-0.57)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.58)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.6)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.62)







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