Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increasing global demand for natural gas could drive NGS prices higher. Recent structural developments and strategic partnerships in LNG services support growth potential, alongside the recent bullish sentiment from social media channel discussions.

Bearish Case: Market sentiment remains cautious due to historical volatility and regulatory uncertainties. The recent historical price action suggests strong mean-reversion behavior, potentially hindering significant upside in NGS prices.

Potential Outcomes:

• 35% chance of growth due to increased LNG demand.
• 25% chance for re-rating based on price-to-book ratio normalization.
• 40% chance of stagnation due to liquidity concerns.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread on long-dated NGS call options at $27.50 and $30 strikes, capitalizing on elevated implied volatility while managing downside risks. This offers a high probability of profit given current market sentiment and pricing behaviour.

December 21, 2024