Bullish Case: The historical return surface indicates a solid potential for gains over longer holding periods, particularly if economic conditions improve. Growing interest in ethical investments aligns with the ETF’s values, potentially attracting more capital.

Bearish Case: Heightened macroeconomic risks, such as sustained inflation and rising interest rates, could dampen investor confidence and lead to negative returns. Recent complacency in pricing could see swift corrections if external factors worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

• Market stabilization leads to gradual PRAY recovery (40%).
• Flat performance continues as macro uncertainties persist (30%).
• Significant downturn due to rising interest rates (30%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a long call debit spread on PRAY targeting a 6-12 month horizon, capitalizing on potential upside from favorable market conditions. This strategy leverages the historical tendency for gains over extended periods while providing downside protection. Aim for a reward:risk ratio above 2:1.

December 19, 2024