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AI SHY Forecast

Bullish Case: Implied volatility is trending downward, suggesting market confidence. Historical data shows potential recovery toward $85 with 40% probability as stabilization occurs.

Bearish Case: Recent volatility spikes in put options indicate heightened market uncertainty. A decline to around $78 is plausible with a 30% chance if bearish sentiment continues.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stabilization at $85 (40% chance).

2. Drop to $78 (30% chance) following sell-offs.

3. Sideways trading near $81-$84 (30% chance) as the market consolidates.

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September 21, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SHY

IEI BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.98)

TLH BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.94)

DRN Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.93)

IGLB BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond (0.93)

KIM Kimco Realty (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SHY

RIOT Riot Blockchain (0.0)

IMAX Imax (0.0)

HUBS HubSpot (0.0)

CHTR Charter Communications (0.0)

ULTA Ulta Beauty (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SHY

CHAU Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (-0.84)

DRV Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.87)

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.89)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.93)

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