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SHY Forecast


Bullish Case: SHY's historical mean reversion suggests potential stabilization. Implied volatility's downward trend supports moderate gains due to reduced uncertainty.



Bearish Case: High put option volume and backwardation imply persisting bearish sentiment. Economic uncertainties could pressure SHY, risking a decline.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stabilization at $82-$84 (50%): Mean reversion ongoing.
  • Decline to $78 (30%): Elevated uncertainties and bearish risk.
  • Recovery to $85 (20%): Reduced implied volatility.


May 15, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SHY


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.73)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (0.73)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.71)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (0.58)


EQX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQX  Equinox Gold (0.57)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SHY


HL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HL  Hecla Mining (0.0)


TVTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TVTX  Travere Therapeutics (0.0)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (-0.0)


GSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSL  Global Ship Lease (0.01)


DAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAC  Danaos (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SHY


NOA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOA  North American Construction (-0.67)


JANX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JANX  Janux Therapeutics (-0.68)


RPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPD  Rapid7 (-0.72)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (-0.73)


FLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLR  Fluor (-0.81)







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