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MLN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Potential stabilization in interest rates could increase demand for MLN, benefiting from high implied volatility and possible tax-exempt income advantages.

Bearish Case: Persistent interest rate hikes and geopolitical tensions could suppress demand for municipal bonds, threatening MLN's market appeal.

Potential Outcomes: Interest rate hike (30%), geopolitical tensions (25%), increased demand for municipal bonds (20%), stable growth (15%), regulatory changes (10%).

Trading Oracle: Long Volatility Debit Spread on MLN, targeting a 15-18 strike range over a 6-month horizon. High implied volatility signals potential large swings; this spread optimizes high reward:risk while remaining adaptable to possible movements. Focus on tightening exit strategies.

January 09, 2025

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Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MLN

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.51)

GL Globe Life (0.48)

MCD McDonald's (0.48)

EPR EPR Properties (0.47)

CWH Camping World (0.46)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MLN

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.0)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (-0.0)

ERJ Embraer (0.01)

BGS B&G Foods (0.01)

ASML New York Shares (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MLN

CRON Cronos (-0.35)

SU Suncor Energy (-0.37)

UVXY ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.4)

FANG Diamondback Energy (-0.48)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.55)

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